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Trinidad & Tobago: Storm reliefAt least one hurricane could land in the United States or the Caribbean and cause extensive damage, a leading expert has predicted. Although it seems the Caribbean is facing another active hurricane season,the United States-based weather expert says data is actually pointing to fewer storms and hurricanes and a safer season this year. Professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University, William Gray, has warned that the upcoming hurricane season for 2006 will be a "very active season in the Atlantic Basin". In his April 4 extended range forecast, Gray estimated that there would be approximately nine hurricanes, 17 named storms, and five intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes this year. This,however is actually a smaller number of expected storms than what occurred last year. In 2005, there were 26 named storms, 14 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the entire North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Predicting that there would not be as many land falling major hurricanes in the United States this year as in 2004 and 2005, Gray sought to deal with the theory that global warming was responsible for the large upswing in the 2004/2005 US hurricane landfalls. He admitted that the US landfall of major hurricanes such as Dennis, Katrina, Rita and Wilma in 2005, and Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne in 2004, had prompted questions about the possible role of global warming in the unusually destructive seasons. Gray said the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons were unusually destructive as a higher percentage of major hurricanes moved over the US coastline, which was caused by favourable broadscale Atlantic upper air steering currents which were present during the two seasons. He said it was these steering currents which caused so many of the major hurricanes to come ashore. Gray also said it was statistically unlikely that the 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons would be as active as 2004 and 2005. Anna-Lisa Paul, Port of Spain, Trinidad Brought to you by www.karibik-journal.com |
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